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Pay a little extra each month. How much sooner is it gone? 67 months early on a mortgage How Much Sooner Does an Extra Payment End the Loan? Personal FinanceStarterData Table When does your startup actually run out of money? Median 8 months · 19% survive When Does the Startup Run Out of Cash? FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What is the business really worth? Value $1.7M–$4.7M What Is the Business Worth, as a Range? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO What will your ARR be in 12 months? Median $1.9M (P5–P95 $1.5–2.3M) SaaS ARR Forecast with Uncertainty SaaSIntermediateMonte CarloPRO After this round, what do you actually walk away with? Payout $24M–$130M What Do the Founders Keep After the Round and the Exit? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO How much should you order when demand is uncertain? Profit $98–$210 Inventory Order Quantity (Newsvendor) OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Should you counter the offer, or just take it? Counter wins: EV $126k Job Offer: Counter or Accept? LifeIntermediateDecision TreePRO Which apartment should you take? Oak wins 76 to 75: too close Which Apartment? Score It LifeStarterWeighted ScoringPRO Which job offer really pays more? BigCo by $12K adjusted Two Job Offers: Price the Tradeoffs WorkIntermediateAddressing TradeoffsPRO Should you hold your price, or cut first? Truce is worth $4M each Price War: Hold or Cut? OperationsIntermediateGame TheoryPRO Which tasks actually set your launch date? Day 23, and 9 days of slack elsewhere Launch Plan: Find the Critical Path OperationsStarterCritical PathPRO Which risks actually deserve the money? $112K exposure cut to $41K Project Risk Register, Priced OperationsIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO Whose calendar is the real critical path? 2 tasks at once for 7 days Is Anyone Double-Booked? WorkStarterResource LoadPRO Can the panel agree on an order, if not on scores? Priya at 1.75 weighted Rank the Candidates WorkIntermediateWeighted ScoringPRO Which office wins once you price the commute? Downtown by $15K adjusted Where Should the Office Be? OperationsIntermediateAddressing TradeoffsPRO What is staying put actually costing you? Staying put is $85K behind Switch Cloud Providers, or Stay? SaaSAdvancedAddressing TradeoffsPRO Should you announce your format before they do? Moving first is worth +5 Standards War: Which Format to Back? OperationsIntermediateGame TheoryPRO Neither side wants to blink. What happens? Hold firm 40% of the time Deadline Standoff: Hold Firm or Concede? LegalAdvancedGame TheoryPRO Which task should you actually chase? Day 44, furniture has 11 days Office Move: What Sets the Date? OperationsStarterCritical PathPRO Which part of the conference actually decides the date? Registration has 20 days slack Conference Plan: What Sets the Date? MarketingStarterCritical PathPRO How much of the schedule is hidden padding? 90 days becomes 68.9 Certification: Buffer the Chain, Not the Tasks OperationsAdvancedCritical ChainPRO Does the plan need one person in two places? Nina at 141%, 9 days over Agency Load: Who Is Overbooked? WorkIntermediateResource LoadPRO Which event risks are worth paying to prevent? $51K exposure cut to $25.5K Event Risk Register MarketingIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO What are the odds you land an A? Locked B · 11% shot at an A What Grade Will You Get? SchoolStarterMonte CarloPRO Will the wedding go over budget? 65% over a $20K budget Will the Event Go Over Budget? LifeIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Your renovation quote is $30,000. What will it really cost? Quote $30K, budget about $48K What Will the Renovation Really Cost? HomeIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Will you actually hit your savings goal? 85% reach a $40K goal Will You Hit Your Savings Goal? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What is the cheapest meal plan that hits your targets? $5.48/day · exact optimum Cheapest Meal Plan (Optimization) HealthIntermediateOptimization Where should the next ad dollar go? +90 orders on the same money Split the Ad Budget for Maximum Orders MarketingIntermediateOptimization Exactly what do you need on the final? 91.5 for an A · 66.5 for a B What Do You Need on the Final? SchoolStarterGoal Seek You are 43% done. When does the project actually finish? Forecast Sep 21 (not Aug) Will the Project Finish on Time? WorkIntermediateS-CurvePRO Do ads move your sales, or is it price? R²=0.99 · ads win What Actually Drives Your Sales? AnalyticsAdvancedRegression Will your retirement money last to 95? 60% chance it lasts to 95 Retirement: Will the Money Last? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Should you buy the house or keep renting? -$380k to +$275k Rent vs Buy a House Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Will this rental actually cash flow? 39% chance of a losing year Does the Rental Property Make Money Most Months? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How few nurses can cover every hour of your unit? $143,080/yr saved How Many Nurses Does Each Shift Need? OperationsAdvancedOptimization Should you take the settlement or go to trial? $12k EV edge Settle or Go to Trial? LegalAdvancedDecision TreePRO How much should we reserve for this lawsuit? P95 $9.7M What Could the Lawsuit Cost Us? LegalAdvancedMonte CarloPRO What should your day rate actually be? $1,202/day to net $100k What Day Rate Does a Freelancer Need to Charge? WorkStarterGoal Seek Which deductible really costs you less? HDHP cheaper in 65% of years Which Health Plan Costs Less Over a Year? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Is this security control worth the budget line? 74% chance it pays off Is This Security Control Worth It? OperationsAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Who should work on which project? 43 / 50 team fit Best-Fit Assignments WorkIntermediateOptimization Your test came back positive. What are the odds it is real? 0.89% Positive Test, Real Risk HealthIntermediateData Table What should you bid to win the job and still make money? $4,270 expected profit at a $32,000 sweet-spot bid Competitive Bid Optimizer WorkAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Does the launch still pay after it eats the flagship? 28.9% breakeven Launch With Cannibalization FinanceIntermediateData Table Which subscribers are about to cancel? 10 of 30 worth a $60 save offer Churn Early-Warning Scorecard AnalyticsAdvancedLogistic Regression What will this project actually cost at completion? $293K over at completion Project Health Check (EVM) WorkAdvancedProject HealthPRO What does that broken process actually cost per year? 8.1 min/day to break even What a Broken Process Costs per Year OperationsStarterGoal Seek Can you actually afford to stop working? The money lasts all 29 years in 79% of trials Are We Ready to Retire? PersonalIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What are the odds your product launch actually makes money? 33% chance of loss Product Launch Go/No-Go NPV FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Who should get the loan offer? 5.6x top-decile lift Who Should the Campaign Target? MarketingAdvancedLogistic Regression How big could this product's revenue be by year three? 80% chance of clearing $75M by year three Market Size to Revenue Forecast FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Fund the Safe Project or the Risky One? $825K kill-option value WorkIntermediateDecision TreePRO Which offer package should you actually ask for? +$7,500 vs meeting in the middle Job Offer Package Optimizer WorkAdvancedOptimization How good is each team, really? Aces by 0.5 Power Ratings & Spread Predictor AnalyticsAdvancedOptimization What CPA will your ad budget actually buy? $375 per customer PPC Campaign Planner MarketingIntermediateGoal Seek How much should you produce each month? +$26,050 vs flat plan Production & Demand Planner OperationsAdvancedOptimization Which projects should we fund this year? +$1.16M vs picking by NPV rank Project Portfolio Selector FinanceAdvancedOptimization How many rentals until an item pays for itself? Breaks even on rental 8.9 of 12 Rental Break-Even Turns FinanceStarterGoal Seek Which risks stay red after controls? residual 12 vs appetite 6 IT Risk: Still Red After Controls? OperationsIntermediateData Table Big advance or double the royalty rate? $545k Advance vs Royalty WorkIntermediateDecision TreePRO Can you really afford six months off? 78% safe Can I Afford a Sabbatical? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What does skipping the salary negotiation really cost you? $352,058 What Does Not Negotiating the Salary Cost Over a Career? Personal FinanceStarterData Table How many survey responses do you actually need? 357 responses Survey Sample Size Planner AnalyticsStarterData Table Will we actually be ready when the guests arrive? 58% on-time Finish Before the Party? LifeIntermediateSchedule RiskPRO Ship at 80% confidence, or run one more validation round? Verdict flips at 40% scoop risk Ship Now or Test More WorkIntermediateDecision TreePRO How many more visits with your parents are left? ≈65 visits left How Many Visits With Your Parents Are Left? LifeStarterMonte CarloPRO What pre-money valuation can your startup actually justify? $560M exit prices at $32.9M pre What Is the Startup Worth to an Investor? FinanceAdvancedDecision TreePRO Is that market study worth paying for? $20,000 info ceiling Is That Market Study Worth It? MarketingAdvancedDecision TreePRO What's the most you should pay before you walk away? $63,000 max bid Walk-Away Price Calculator Personal FinanceStarterData Table Where should your warehouse actually be? 1,132 to 519 avg miles Warehouse Location Optimizer OperationsAdvancedOptimization Version B is up 18%. Is that a real win or just noise? p = 0.076 Did the A/B Test Actually Win? AnalyticsIntermediateStatistics If you raise your bid, what does it actually buy? $3.51 vs $7.01 per click Ad Auction Simulator MarketingIntermediateData Table When does your rollout actually reach 80% adoption? 17 months How Long Until the Team Works the New Way? WorkAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Why are most of your flags false alarms? 10.2% Bayes Flip: P(A|B) vs P(B|A) AnalyticsIntermediateStatistics What would regret have to be worth to leap? $80,000 Should You Take the Career Leap? WorkIntermediateDecision TreePRO Should you counter, or take the offer on the table? 56.7% Counter or Accept Personal FinanceIntermediateDecision TreePRO Which rows in these two lists are the same company? 12 of 13 matches found Match Two Customer Lists That Don't Agree OperationsIntermediateFuzzy Lookup What do the next four quarters of demand actually look like? Q4 off by 11,860 units Seasonal Demand Forecast OperationsIntermediateForecasting What does website downtime really cost us per year? $4,800 per hour down What Does an Hour of Website Downtime Cost? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO When the company sells, what do you take home? $23.7M of $405M Exit Payout Reality Check FinanceIntermediateData Table Is the feasibility study worth it before you bid? 50% Should We Pay for a Feasibility Study Before Bidding? OperationsIntermediateGoal Seek Will this market tip to a single winner, or stay split? 68% Format War Tipping Simulator SaaSAdvancedMonte CarloPRO How much gross profit does each inventory dollar earn? $2.65 per $1 of inventory What Does Each Dollar of Stock Earn in a Year? FinanceIntermediateData Table Where does a 35% hurdle rate actually come from? 18.5% fair vs 35% quoted What Return Should a Risky Project Have to Clear? FinanceIntermediateData Table Should we pay the overtime or take the late penalty? $12,900 best schedule Overtime vs Late Penalty Scheduler OperationsAdvancedOptimization Does selling when stocks look expensive beat holding? 46% Market Timing vs Buy and Hold Personal FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Which assumption is this strategic bet actually resting on? 43% chance of clearing the hurdle What Has to Be True: Strategic Bet Stress Test FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Should you sell the hardware below cost to win the platform? $350 beats $400 by $4.9B Platform Launch Pricing SaaSAdvancedData Table Is that jump in your conversion rate real, or just luck? p = 0.033 Is That Rate Real, or Just Luck? MarketingIntermediateStatistics What order should you drive your stops in? 430 miles Shortest Route Finder OperationsIntermediateOptimization How big is your serviceable market, really? $347M to $708M Serviceable Market Size (SAM) Range MarketingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What are your customer segments, actually? 19% of customers, 33% of revenue Find Your Real Customer Segments MarketingAdvancedClustering Your dashboard says stores win. Does the data agree? +5.7 pts online Simpson's Paradox Detector AnalyticsAdvancedRegression If we build one 50% bigger, what will it actually cost? +77% cost for 2x capacity What Does Twice the Capacity Cost? OperationsAdvancedData Table Which mix of stores should fill your square footage? $130,200 a year Retail Space Mix Optimizer OperationsAdvancedOptimization How do you give every team a fair share of every skill? 7 specialists, 8 seats, 1 team short Balanced Team Builder WorkAdvancedOptimization How should you actually spend your 168 hours a week? +17% well-being, same 168 hours Design Your 168-Hour Week LifeIntermediateOptimization Is there a deal that beats splitting the difference? 1,150 vs 840 points Win-Win Deal Finder WorkAdvancedOptimization Will your walk-away price leave any deal zone at all? 69% deal odds Deal Zone Odds (ZOPA Simulator) WorkIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How much contingency does this bid actually need? 24% of jobs at this price lose money How Much Contingency Does This Bid Need? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What range can a lost profits opinion actually support? Median $1.5M · 11% chance damages top the $1.8M claim How Much Are the Lost Profits Worth? LegalAdvancedMonte CarloPRO The headline says $12M. What is the earn-out worth? $3.04M PV on a $12M headline · P10 is $0 What Is the Earn-Out Actually Worth? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Whose cost to complete should you believe? CPI 0.78 · honest cost to complete is $4.14M Is the Cost to Complete Claim Credible? LegalIntermediateProject HealthPRO Will the synergies actually cover the premium? Mean synergies $31.0M vs a $42M premium · 24% cover it Will the Synergies Cover the Premium? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Can you afford the hiring plan? Median 13 months · 3 in 4 clear the 12-month bar Can We Afford This Hiring Plan? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO If you raise prices, do you come out ahead? ARR $8.29M at +15% against $8.09M holding price If We Raise Prices, Do We Come Out Ahead? SaaSIntermediateData Table Sign the flat round, or wait for the milestone? Waiting is worth $10.8M more, until odds hit 26% Raise Now, or Wait for the Milestone? FinanceAdvancedDecision TreePRO How long until a customer pays you back? Median 15 months · 76% inside the 18-month bar How Long Until a Customer Pays Us Back? SaaSIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What gross margin can you actually promise? P10 margin 68% · one year in three holds the 78% deck What Gross Margin Can We Actually Promise? SaaSIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What finish date can you actually commit to? Plan says 96 days · commit to the P80 at 109 What Finish Date Can I Commit To? WorkAdvancedSchedule RiskPRO How much buffer does this plan actually need? Commit to 60.5 days, not the 117 the padding hid How Much Buffer Does This Plan Need? WorkAdvancedCritical ChainPRO Did That Delay Actually Push the Finish Date? C critical in 96% of trials · 10 days supported, not 40 LegalAdvancedSchedule RiskPRO Should you certify this payment application? Verified 56.6%, invoiced 73.9%, CPI 0.766 Should I Certify This Payment Application? WorkIntermediateProject HealthPRO Is the Startup Equity Worth the Pay Cut? Options end worth $0 in 67% of runs WorkAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Claim at 62, 67 or wait until 70? Waiting wins from the early 80s · at 90 it is $75K When Should You Take Social Security? Personal FinanceStarterData Table Pay Off the Mortgage Early or Invest the Money? Investing wins 84% of the time · P5 is a $41K regret Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Will the college fund actually cover four years? Covers all four years in 43% of futures Will the College Fund Cover Four Years? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Is an Electric Car Actually Cheaper to Own? Electric wins only above about 20,800 miles a year Personal FinanceStarterData Table How much should you order each time? EOQ 600 · $1,800 a year · 100 off costs under $31 How Much to Order Each Time (EOQ) OperationsStarterData Table Which plant should ship to which store? $6,650 ships everything · $350 under the by-hand plan Which Plant Ships to Which Store? OperationsIntermediateOptimization How many servers does the queue actually need? Four servers is the floor · $128 an hour all-in How Long Will the Line Get? OperationsAdvancedData Table Do the decision rules agree on what to build? The winner flips at 34.7% odds of strong demand Which Option Wins, and at What Odds? SchoolIntermediateData Table How long will the next batch take? A 79.6% curve · quote 907 hours, not 1,108 Learning Curve: How Long Will the Next Batch Take? AnalyticsIntermediateRegression What Does Ignoring Correlation Cost You? Correlation moves P95 from $12.6M to $14.3M FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO What is your average hiding? Mean $408.60, median $413, CI ±$15.96 One Table That Describes Your Numbers AnalyticsStarterStatistics Can you actually keep your wait-time promise? 70.8% answered inside six minutes What Shape Are Your Wait Times? OperationsStarterStatistics Two reps closed the same number. Who ranks first? Two tied at $118K share rank 1 · 88.9th percentile Rank the Leaderboard, Ties and All WorkStarterStatistics Is there a typo dragging your average up? 1 of 13 flagged · fences $26.50 and $78.50 Catch the Outlier Entry WorkStarterStatistics Three averages differ. Is that more than chance? F 24.15, p 0.00002 · a 12.8-point spread is real Which Study Method Actually Works? SchoolStarterStatistics You changed two things and it worked. Which one did it? Recipe F 90.8, oven F 36.8 · the interaction is real too Oven, Recipe, or Both? HomeStarterStatistics Does the night shift really produce less? Shift F 316.8, line F 187.8 · both far past 6.94 Shift or Line: What Moves Output? OperationsStarterStatistics Eight people, 32 more minutes of sleep. Real, or luck? +32 minutes of sleep · p = 0.00003 Does Cutting Caffeine Buy You Sleep? HealthStarterStatistics The remodel looks better. Would you bet the chain on it? The $272 layout gap is real · p = 0.001 Which Store Layout Sells More? MarketingStarterStatistics One group is wild, one is steady. Is the gap real? The 15-minute saving is real: Welch p 0.001 Manual vs Automated, Tested Fairly WorkStarterStatistics Is one line underfilling, or is that just spread? A 1.2 g underfill is real: z 3.60, p 0.0003 Are Two Fill Lines Filling the Same? OperationsStarterStatistics Two machines, same average. Which one wanders? F = 95.6, p 0.000002 · one machine 10x tighter Is the New Machine More Consistent? OperationsStarterStatistics Which step of your funnel moves least reliably? Ad spend to visits r = 0.96 · the tightest funnel link Spend, Visits, Sales: What Moves Together? MarketingStarterStatistics Do your two holdings actually diversify each other? Covariance 0.32 · correlation 0.987 How Two Assets Move Together FinanceStarterStatistics You guessed min, likely, max. What does history say? Lognormal wins · KS 0.086 on 16 deliveries Which Distribution Fits Your Data? AnalyticsStarterStatistics One load took three seconds. Is the site faster? Median 217.5 ms vs 450 · p = 0.0104 Faster Site, Proven Without the Bell Curve SaaSStarterStatistics Every day improved. Could that just be luck? W+ 45 of 45 · p 0.009 · median cut 4 hours Did the New Process Cut Ticket Times? SaaSStarterStatistics Is that channel better, or just one big customer? Median $915 vs $107.50 · p = 0.0005 Which Channel Brings the Big Spenders? MarketingStarterStatistics What is next month's demand, give or take? Order 167 next month, give or take 6 Smooth the Noise, See the Trend OperationsStarterForecasting When the level shifts, how fast does your forecast follow? Next week 241 · the step absorbed in two weeks A Forecast That Trusts Recent Weeks WorkStarterForecasting What season length should your forecast use? Lag 4 ACF +0.74, lag 2 -0.84 · a four-period season Does Your Revenue Have a Season? AnalyticsStarterForecasting Can twelve sold homes price the next three? Test R² 0.99 · 2,000 sqft prices at $405K Teach a Tiny Neural Net House Prices HomeStarterNeural Net Is that vibration random noise or a real rhythm? Two real spikes: 32.0 at f2 and 12.0 at f5 Find the Hidden Vibration Frequencies AnalyticsStarterStatistics What happens to the reserve when costs rise together? The contingency is blown 13 years in 100 Will the Contingency Last? ConstructionIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Which finish date can you put in the contract? P50 157 · P80 165 · P95 172 days The P80 Construction Schedule ConstructionIntermediateSchedule RiskPRO What are the odds the rain costs you the date? Deadline blown in 30% of trials · P95 15 weeks Will the Weather Blow the Deadline? ConstructionStarterMonte CarloPRO What is finishing on time actually worth? Expected damages $5,300 on a $400K fee What Do Late Days Really Cost? ConstructionStarterMonte CarloPRO When does the punch list actually finish? Three weeks to done: 92%, 97.3%, then 100 Is Closeout on Track? ConstructionStarterS-CurvePRO Will you run out of cash this quarter? Week 7 · P5 -$119K Will the Cash Last Thirteen Weeks? FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What are the odds you breach the covenant? Breach odds 2.4% · leverage P95 3.43x on a 3.5x test How Close Is the Covenant? FinanceStarterMonte CarloPRO Every line looks fine. Will the year still go over? P95 opex $6.36M · over the envelope in 40% of trials Will the Budget Hold? FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How far could next year miss the revenue plan? Revenue $6.32M to $7.50M, P5 to P95 What Will Next Year's Revenue Be, as a Range? FinanceStarterMonte CarloPRO How much of your risk is just the exchange rate? Margin swings 3% to 20% on the exchange rate alone What Does the Exchange Rate Do to Profit? FinanceStarterMonte CarloPRO What happens to the plan when reps leave? 50% chance the team misses the $5.4M plan Will the Sales Team Make the Number? WorkStarterMonte CarloPRO Your churn is a band. What does that do to LTV? LTV $651 to $1,066 around an $846 mean What Is a Customer Really Worth? SaaSIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Is overselling worth the bumps at the gate? Overselling nets +$629 a flight · 45% of days bump How Many Tickets Should You Oversell? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Will your reserve cover a bad claims year? Mean claims year $71K · reserve blown 12% of years How Big Could the Claims Year Be? LegalIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How often will the reserve you set fall short? Mean cost $130K · the $140K reserve fails 39% of years Is the Warranty Reserve Enough? OperationsStarterMonte CarloPRO Will a weekend like this cover its costs? Mean $621 profit · 23% of weekends lose money Should You Book the Stall? LifeStarterMonte CarloPRO Should you switch doors or stay? Switching wins 66.7% of 20,000 simulated games Switch or Stay? The Monty Hall Problem, Simulated SchoolStarterMonte CarloPRO Why does splitting the money cut the risk? Same 7% return · risk 7.4 points against 15 all-in Why Diversification Works SchoolStarterMonte CarloPRO Drill blind or pay to learn the odds first? $50K test worth $202K · drilling blind worth $0 Is the Test Worth Paying For? SchoolIntermediateDecision TreePRO What is a pilot actually worth before you commit? Pilot EV $287K · 45% of runs end -$150K Pilot First, or Go Big? WorkIntermediateDecision TreePRO Is the franchise worth giving up a steady salary? Franchise EV $219K vs $198K indie, $165K job Franchise, Independent, or Keep the Job? Personal FinanceStarterDecision TreePRO Does growth or margin move your profit more? EBITDA $626K to $1.92M across the grid How Do Growth and Margin Move EBITDA Together? FinanceStarterData Table How far is the campaign from breaking even? Break-even 2.63% · today's 2% loses $4,800 a month The Conversion Rate That Breaks Even MarketingStarterGoal Seek Why is the textbook schedule too optimistic? P50 21.4 · P80 23.0 weeks against the 21 on the board The Classic Project Network, Simulated SchoolStarterSchedule RiskPRO How many boards do you actually have to buy? 6 boards cut the list · 12 shelves, 8 cleats exact The Fewest Boards for the Cut List HomeStarterOptimization How many people will the peak month need? Next month 1,024 tickets · fit misses by 1.7% Staff for the Season, Not the Average OperationsIntermediateForecasting How far above average demand should you order? Order 1,351, not the 1,200 you expect to sell How Many Should I Order? OperationsIntermediateOptimization under UncertaintyPRO What does staffing to an average day cost you? 26 agents, not 21 · about $840 a day cheaper How Many People Should Be on Shift? OperationsIntermediateOptimization under UncertaintyPRO How many extra seats before someone gets bumped? Sell 103, not 108 · the bad-day take rises $3,300 What Is the Best Number to Oversell? OperationsAdvancedOptimization under UncertaintyPRO What will you weigh six months from now? 215 to 176 lb in 26 weeks, a 750-calorie deficit How Much Weight Will I Lose? HealthStarterData Table Pick a rate you can hold. What date does that give? 21.1 weeks to reach 185 lb, not the 12 in the plan How Long Until I Hit My Goal Weight? HealthStarterGoal Seek What will your savings be worth in 20 years? Median $343K in today's money · 31% hit $400K What Will the Savings Grow To, as a Range? Personal FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Does buying ever win at big-city prices? Renting wins by $613K on average · buying wins 3.5% Rent or Buy in an Expensive City Personal FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO You added up the likely costs. Is that enough? A 1-in-4 chance of blowing the $7,000 budget Will the Trip Blow the Budget? LifeStarterMonte CarloPRO The variant is up 25.9%. What lift can you actually promise? Up 25.9%, but the data only promises 6% to 46% Did the B Version Win? MarketingStarterStatistics How long does this A/B test have to run? 13,015 per arm · 26,030 visitors to see a 20% lift How Many Visitors Does This Test Need? MarketingStarterA/B Test Sample Size How far apart are your best year and your worst? Profit spans -$84K to +$123K · base headroom 7% Base, Better, Worse: Save the Three Cases FinanceStarterScenarios What does a margin of error of four points cost? 601 responses at ±4 points · 2,401 at ±2 How Many People Do We Have to Ask? MarketingStarterSample Size (General) Which thirty invoices should you actually check? Every 8th invoice: 30 of 240, reproducible by seed Pull a Fair Sample of Invoices to Check FinanceStarterSampling Can you get the same random numbers back? Same seed, same 400 numbers, every run Reproducible Random Draws, With a Seed AnalyticsStarterRandom Number Generation What does each of the three budgets actually produce? Planned $77,980 · Conservative is a $59,040 loss Which of Three Budgets Should the Practice Plan On? WorkStarterScenarios What do the lean, normal and cautious bids each look like? Lean $555K to cautious $693K, a $138K spread Three Ways to Price This Bid ConstructionStarterScenarios Who is actually carrying the month? The busiest falls 120 to 110 · loads 110 / 110 / 108 Which Lawyer Takes Which Matter? LegalStarterOptimization Cheapest crew per site, or cheapest week? $58,400 vs $61,200 for cheapest-first Which Crew Goes to Which Site? ConstructionStarterOptimization Everyone fits. Did anyone actually get what they wanted? Scores 65 to the pencil plan's 60, promise kept Seat Everyone Without Breaking the Rules OperationsStarterOptimization What is the cheapest menu that still keeps every promise? $490.80 feeds the room · 12% under the even spread Feed Everyone for the Least Money OperationsStarterOptimization Why is your average claim the wrong number? Half settle under $10K · one claim is 23% of spend What Do Claims Actually Cost? LegalStarterStatistics The rate says 90 a day. What do the site records say? Mean 86.4 m2 a day against the 90 the bid priced What Does a Normal Crew Day Produce? ConstructionStarterStatistics Which venue is actually cheapest per head? $160.45 to $205.00 a head across eleven venues Rank the Venues on What They Cost You OperationsStarterStatistics Are you paying for cement the spec does not need? $44.45 a cubic meter, down from $50.66 Which Concrete Mix Meets Spec for the Least Money? ConstructionStarterOptimization Is intake growing, or does it just feel busy? Smoothed intake up 63% · demand fills all 7 earners How Many Matters Are Coming? LegalStarterForecasting More invitations, or more notice? 100 invitations buy 23 heads · R² 0.97 What Predicts Turnout? OperationsStarterRegression Crew B is 16% ahead. Is that the crew, or the fortnight? F 2.42, p 0.113 · the 16% crew gap is not established Do the Three Crews Work at the Same Rate? ConstructionStarterStatistics The venue moves the odds. By how much? p 0.0029 · Cramer's V 0.16, real but modest Does the Court Change the Settlement Rate? LegalIntermediateStatistics Is the biggest engagement worth the two it blocks? Turning down the biggest engagement books $12,000 more Which Engagements Should We Take? WorkStarterOptimization Is filling every billable hour the wrong plan? $5,805 · gives up 6.75 billable hours on purpose Where Should My Own Week Go? WorkStarterOptimization Is 32 hours a week a target or a wish? Mean 31.9 hours ± 2.45 at 95% · median 33 What Does a Typical Billable Week Look Like? WorkStarterStatistics Is your biggest client really your best one? Top 2 of 14 clients are 32% of the fee book Which Clients Are Actually Worth Keeping? WorkStarterStatistics What is the lowest rate that is not a subsidy? Break-even $117.56 an hour · $162.53 pays the owner What Rate Do I Have to Charge? WorkStarterGoal Seek Which few tasks are eating the whole calendar? Five slow tasks eat 44.6% of the quarter How Long Do Our Tasks Really Take? WorkStarterStatistics How much should you pad the next estimate? Mean miss +17% · 20 of 24 tasks ran over How Wrong Are Our Estimates, Usually? WorkStarterStatistics What three-point estimate does your history give? Most likely 2.9 days · the average takes 7.5 What Shape Are Our Task Durations? WorkIntermediateStatistics Which forecast should you actually quote? Next quarter $1,053K · the knob alone moves it $24K What Will Next Quarter's Fees Be? FinanceStarterForecasting Is that client really slower or just one late invoice? Medians 18 vs 30 days · rank-test p = 0.0000045 Do These Two Clients Pay at the Same Speed? FinanceStarterStatistics Packing the best thing first. What does that cost you? $1,385 packed · value-first packing leaves $50 behind Fit the Most Into One Box OperationsStarterOptimization How many people does the rota actually need? 8 people cover a rota that peaks at 6 Cover Every Hour With the Fewest People WorkStarterOptimization Is the plan limited by money or by people? $91,000 return · people bind, $26,667 goes unspent Split a Fixed Budget Across Three Things FinanceStarterOptimization Does the cheapest quote stay cheapest after freight? Splitting on landed cost saves $1,507, 4.2% of the buy Which Suppliers Fill the Order Cheapest? OperationsStarterOptimization When does the next unit of stock stop paying? 150 units lift service from 50% to 82% of cycles How Much Safety Stock Do We Actually Need? OperationsIntermediateData Table How much stock does a longer lead time cost you? Lead time up 4.5x, safety stock only doubles When Should We Reorder? OperationsStarterData Table What does a 95% promise cost, in units? 95% takes 271 units · 99% takes 383 What Stock Level Holds a 95% Service Level? OperationsIntermediateGoal Seek A 7% margin in January. How often is the year a loss? One agency year in three ends below zero Will the Retainer Book Cover the Year? MarketingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Plan for the average month or the bad one? +64 orders a month from re-weighting the same $60,000 How to Split Spend When Conversion Is a Guess MarketingAdvancedOptimization under UncertaintyPRO How often does an ordinary year lose money? Profit $66K vs the $220K plan · 29.5% loss years What If the Biggest Client Leaves? FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How Big Should the Emergency Fund Be? Personal FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO When does a new hire start paying for themselves? 71% of first years lose money · year two +$31,500 Is the Next Hire Worth It? MarketingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO A product launch risk register pricing five ways a launch goes wrong against mitigation cost, from a calendar invite to production fixes. Free template. $82,500 exposure cut to $36,700 · best buy is $4,000 What Could Go Wrong With This Launch? MarketingIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO Did that payment land on the right client? 12 of 14 matched · both refusals correct Match the Invoices to the Client List FinanceStarterFuzzy Lookup Does discounting to fill the room ever work? $440 surplus at $480 x 20 · one dropout from a loss What Does the Course Have to Charge? SchoolStarterData Table Which category did the buying plan get wrong? 226 of 1,500 units in the wrong category · p < 0.001 Is the Product Mix What We Planned For? OperationsStarterStatistics Is the overrun general or is it one bad line? CPI 0.957 · $1.09M forecast on a $1.04M budget Is the Event Build On Track? OperationsIntermediateProject HealthPRO Is an equal share of the work actually fair? All four markers at 11h 25m · 3 hours off the peak Share the Marking Fairly SchoolStarterOptimization A legal matter risk register pricing five case risks against mitigation cost, showing which of the five mitigations lose money in expectation. Free template. $249,500 at stake · only one mitigation pays its way What Could Go Wrong in This Matter? LegalIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO The lift is real. Is it real for every segment? All of the 22.4% lift is team signups · p 0.019 Did the New Onboarding Move Activation? SaaSIntermediateStatistics The pipeline says you beat target. Will you? $22,750 above target on paper · missed 51% anyway Will the New Business Pipeline Deliver? MarketingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Did the course work or do the students just differ? Gain 6.8 points · paired t -4.61, p 0.0005 Did the Course Move the Scores? SchoolStarterStatistics Did the new format really rate better? Medians 5.5 vs 4 · p = 0.0081 Two Groups, Ranked Feedback, One Answer AnalyticsStarterStatistics Is the rollout slowing, or does it just feel slow? Last 20 stores take 10 months · 100% in July 2027 Is the Rollout Where It Should Be by Now? OperationsIntermediateS-CurvePRO Will your shrink budget survive one bad incident? Mean under budget, breached in 37% of years anyway What Is Shrinkage Really Costing? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How often does this store miss its number? Makes its year 55% of the time · P5 -$19,800 Will This Store Make Its Year? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Should you chase this tender at all? They bid keen whatever you do · answer full, take $9K How Should Two Bidders Price One Tender? ConstructionAdvancedGame TheoryPRO What is a point of utilization actually worth? A coin-flip target · one utilization point is $33,756 Will the Team Bill Enough Hours? WorkIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Twelve recurring tasks timed before and after an automation rollout. Did the Automation Deliver? WorkStarterStatistics Did the change work, or do your lines just differ? Every line improved: +7.2 u/hr, paired p 0.0000018 Did the New Process Actually Help? OperationsStarterStatistics Can you hold the cost per customer you promised? The promised $240 CPA is missed 51% of the time Will the Campaign Hit the Cost Per Acquisition? MarketingAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Which big clients are quietly the expensive ones? Three client businesses · 11 bill big and pay slow Which Kinds of Client Do We Actually Have? WorkIntermediateClustering What would have to change for this channel to pay? Break even at 1.67% conversion or a $1.97 click What Conversion Rate Makes This Channel Work? MarketingStarterGoal Seek The winner got more opens. Did it get more clicks? Opens won at p 0.003 · clicks did not, p 0.47 Which Subject Line Won? MarketingStarterStatistics How many tickets before the event breaks even? 21% chance of a loss · break-even 703 tickets Will the Event Make Money? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What does hiring now cost you next January? Fast costs $1.48M now and $5.22M from January What Three Hiring Plans Cost SaaSStarterScenarios Your traffic is fixed. What lift can it even see? 3,800 an arm sees a 25% lift · the team ships 4 to 11% What Lift Could We Even Detect? SaaSIntermediateA/B Test Sample Size What on-time rate can you actually promise? OTIF lands at 87.9% · the 95% promise fails every month Will We Hit the Delivery Promise? OperationsAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Is a pitch you probably lose still worth entering? Pitch $66,370 EV vs $42,000 to pass Should We Pitch for This Account? MarketingIntermediateDecision TreePRO The higher price lost. Did it make more money? Conversion -15.5%, real · margin per visitor +46% Two Prices, One Answer OperationsStarterStatistics What should you reserve against a recall? Mean $4.60M against $3.62M typed · P95 $7.23M What Would a Recall Cost? OperationsAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Book the same room again or take the bigger one? $44,250 vs $43,000 · risk, not EV, decides Should We Run It Again Next Year? OperationsIntermediateDecision TreePRO Was your best day on site really your best? Two flags: the 31 m day, and the best day too Which Days on Site Went Wrong? ConstructionStarterStatistics Is a second supplier worth paying for? Zero in 92% of years · P95 $2.0M What If the Single Source Fails? OperationsAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Is your worst supplier really worse than the rest? F = 42.11 · one supplier is 48% worse Are These Three Suppliers Really Different? OperationsStarterStatistics Does this delivery note match a supplier on file? 14 of 16 matched · both refusals are real strangers Which Rows in Two Vendor Lists Are the Same Supplier? OperationsStarterFuzzy Lookup Is your markup quietly costing you margin? An 18% margin needs a 21.95% markup · $20,643 gap What Markup Gets This Bid to Target Margin? ConstructionStarterGoal Seek What are the odds the carry is zero? Mean carry $608K a partner · the median is zero What Does Carry Actually Look Like? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Is the bigger fee the better client? Halstead by $43,000 · the big fee runs second Which of Two Clients Should Get the Slot? WorkIntermediateAddressing TradeoffsPRO Is the extra crew cheaper than the damages? 7 crews, not 6 · six crews finish late 82% of the time How Many Crews, When the Weather Is a Guess ConstructionAdvancedOptimization under UncertaintyPRO Score four early-warning signals against client renewal with a correlation matrix, so you know which metric actually predicts churn. Free Sheets template. Exec silence r -0.93 · support tickets r 0.08 What Moves With a Client Leaving? WorkIntermediateStatistics Do overruns or write-offs cost you more? 25% of years the book does not cover the practice Will the Fee Book Cover the Practice? FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Which invoice should you check before it goes out? 1 of 24 flagged: $17,400 against a $7,275 fence Which Invoices Do Not Look Right? FinanceIntermediateStatistics What does an unreliable supplier cost you in stock? 1.8% stall risk at 6,000 units · 95% is the supplier Safety Stock for a Plant That Cannot Stop OperationsIntermediateData Table Do the service credits or the churn cost you more? Median $138K, mean $250K · 44% breach the 99.9% promise What Would an Outage Cost Us? SaaSAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Is the line running on a cycle nobody scheduled? An 8-day cycle: ACF 0.832 against a 0.245 band Does Our Output Repeat on a Cycle? OperationsAdvancedForecasting Would more places actually fix the shortfall? Median surplus $18,343 · one year in six loses Will the Programme Cover Its Costs? SchoolIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Which contingency matters actually lose you money? 45% of years the book loses money · P5 -$408K Will the Recovery Cover the Costs? LegalAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Is a flat daily plan good enough? Sunday 591, Thursday 371 · a flat plan misses both The Season Repeats: Forecast It OperationsIntermediateForecasting A construction site risk register pricing five risks where every mitigation pays for itself, plus the exposure left for the contingency line. Free template. $305K exposure · $131K remains after every fix What Could Go Wrong on Site? ConstructionIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO Is your contingency big enough if delivery slips? 70% chance the shock eats the $60K contingency What If the Supplier Misses? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How many tickets must you sell to break even? At $40 a head the room breaks even at 447 tickets What Ticket Price Covers the Room? OperationsStarterData Table Is it the venue or the time of year? Month explains 55.8% of the swing, venue 42.1% Venue and Month: What Drives Attendance? OperationsIntermediateStatistics Which matters more, your markup or your prep time? A week of prep nearly quadruples the odds of winning What Makes Us Win a Bid? ConstructionIntermediateLogistic Regression What reserve holds nineteen years out of twenty? $38,000 a matter holds 19 years in 20 How Much Should We Reserve Per Matter? LegalIntermediateData Table Commit to the servers or rent them by the hour? Commit 4, rent 6 for the peak · $5,116 a year saved Which Instance Mix Holds the Load for the Least Money? SaaSIntermediateOptimization What is one more person on the gang worth? 14.3 m2 per extra head · rain and deliveries unproven What Explains How Much a Crew Gets Done? ConstructionIntermediateRegression Which stream will move the delivery date? Day 39 · the interview stream has 1 day of slack When Does This Engagement Actually Finish? WorkStarterCritical PathPRO How many hours will this scope actually take? 25.9 hours a scope item · R2 0.94 on 22 engagements What Should This Engagement Cost to Deliver? WorkIntermediateRegression What if the partner with the fee book leaves? Zero in 88% of years · $407K at P95 What Does Losing One Person Cost? WorkAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Is the migration in trouble, or just early? 60-day commitment against an 88-day padded plan Buffer the Migration, Not the Tasks SaaSAdvancedCritical ChainPRO What does outsourcing cost once you price the risks? Second source wins at $125,000 a year · by $60,000 Outsource or Keep It In House? OperationsIntermediateAddressing TradeoffsPRO Are you paying for machine days you never use? Same cover for $2,945 less · 10 days were paid twice Which Plant Do We Hire and Which Do We Own? ConstructionIntermediateOptimization Is the cheapest fix on your risk list the best one? $29,400 exposure · the $250 fix returns $770 What Could Go Wrong This Term? SchoolStarterRisk RegisterPRO Are three of your regions really scoring the same? p 0.00095 · three medians tie at 4, the ranks do not Do the Regions Rate Us Differently? OperationsStarterStatistics The season looks fine on pace. Is it really? Median occupancy 78.2% against the 78% needed Will the Season Fill? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Which tenders should you not price at all? Three of five clear the 70 line · top two 78 vs 77 Score the Sites Before You Bid ConstructionStarterWeighted ScoringPRO Is it cheaper to staff the night or to buy it in? $2,892 a day · buy the night, roster the day Cover the Support Hours for the Least Money SaaSIntermediateOptimization Which class should go to the hired hall? $224.60 for the day, $141.60 under the obvious plan Fit the Timetable Without a Clash SchoolStarterOptimization Should weekends be staffed like any other day? Weekends run 63% heavier and 3.6x less predictable Weekday and Weekend Are Not the Same Business OperationsStarterStatistics What is the standing recipe costing you a tonne? $288.39 a tonne · $12.39 under the standing recipe The Cheapest Blend That Meets the Spec OperationsStarterOptimization Will the changeover fit inside the weekend? A 66.9-hour commitment fits the 72-hour weekend How Much Buffer Does the Changeover Need? OperationsAdvancedCritical ChainPRO Same average fill. So why is one supplier a risk? Same average fill, 29x the variance Which Supplier Is More Consistent? OperationsIntermediateStatistics What is your diversification rule costing you? The sector cap costs $1.36M of expected proceeds Which Deals Can We Actually Fund? FinanceIntermediateOptimization A consulting engagement risk register ranking five risks by exposure and by mitigation value, since the two rankings are not the same list. Free template. $76,750 of exposure · $35,400 after mitigations What Could Go Wrong on This Engagement? WorkIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO Two crews average the same. Is one of them better? Same 212 average · H 18.14 at p 0.0004 Four Shifts, Ranked Output, One Question OperationsIntermediateStatistics Does the new layout help on every shift? Shift F 71.2 beats layout F 67.9 · interaction none Layout and Shift: Which One Moves Output? OperationsAdvancedStatistics Is your busiest person really the problem? Ben at 2 tasks at once for 6 days · Ana is fine Is Anyone Booked on Two Clients at Once? WorkIntermediateResource LoadPRO Which of your cost lines are really one risk? Covariance says 399.9 · correlation says 0.988 Which Two Costs Move Together? FinanceAdvancedStatistics How often does the line miss its monthly number? 40% of months miss · 3,414 units short when they do Will the Plant Make the Volume? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Does the price cut earn back the margin it gives away? Units up by half, 66% chance the money is down Will the Promotion Pay For Itself? MarketingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How late will the release really be? Plan says 39 days · the P80 says 47.8 Can We Ship on That Date? SaaSIntermediateSchedule RiskPRO How much cash does the bigger buy tie up? $55K more cash day one buys $110K more profit if strong Which Season Plan Should the Chain Commit To? OperationsStarterScenarios What does one conflict of interest cost you? The conflict of interest costs $1,100 a quarter Who Works on Which Client? WorkIntermediateOptimization How many invitations does sixty replies take? 60 random draws reach 54 people · draw 75 instead Pull the People to Survey MarketingStarterSampling Did the workshop actually move anyone? Median +2 points · p 0.0069 · 10 of 12 pairs count Did the Training Change Each Person's Score? SchoolIntermediateStatistics Are bookings growing, or is that the zigzag? Smoothed, bookings climb 139 to 203 without a reversal Smooth the Booking Curve OperationsStarterForecasting Is a bell curve the wrong shape for your claims? Lognormal, KS 0.068 · the bell curve fits 4x worse What Distribution Do Claim Sizes Follow? LegalIntermediateStatistics Do rain days really cost you money? Rain days r 0.003 · design changes r 0.83 What Moves With Cost on This Job? ConstructionIntermediateStatistics Can you spot the bad batch before inspection does? 81% right on unseen runs · 2 of 3 batches flagged Predict the Defect Before It Ships OperationsAdvancedNeural Net How many teachers will next summer actually need? Autumn 543, summer 296 · 1.4% fit error How Many Students Next Term? SchoolIntermediateForecasting What does half a point of fee cost the investor? Half a point of fee costs the investor $352,500 What Fee Does the Fund Need to Clear the Hurdle? FinanceIntermediateData Table Does the new capacity pay if growth stops? Mean NPV $651K · minus $870K if growth stops Should We Add the Second Line? OperationsAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Build the course yourself or license one? License at $74.5K EV beats building by $9.3K Is the New Course Worth Building? SchoolIntermediateDecision TreePRO How often does this plan beat the deadline? 68% ready by day 48 · the P80 is 1.6 days late Will We Be Ready for Peak? OperationsIntermediateSchedule RiskPRO How much is riding on your one big channel? Median loss $0, mean $495K · 27.2% of years under water What If the Ad Platform Changes the Rules? MarketingAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Could your sample keep checking the same head? Every 11th covers 12 heads · every 12th covers 1 Pull the Units to Inspect OperationsStarterSampling Which client is quietly about to leave? Sponsor in post: 37x the renewal odds · tenure: none Which Engagements Renew? WorkIntermediateLogistic Regression What repeats in your numbers that nobody planned? Two cycles at once: 16 weeks loud, 4 weeks hidden Find the Cycle You Did Not Know Was There OperationsAdvancedStatistics Should you buy more than you expect to sell? Buy 1,348, not 900: worth $2,450 a season How Much Stock, When Demand Is a Guess OperationsAdvancedOptimization under UncertaintyPRO Did the campaign really move the brand tracker? +6.0 points · z 5.07 · p 0.0000004 Two Big Samples, One Real Difference? MarketingIntermediateStatistics One store takes more. Real, or a good fortnight? $342.50 a day between stores · p = 0.00004 Are These Two Stores Really Different? OperationsStarterStatistics Which media split buys you the most orders? Balanced wins: 7,482 orders at $12.03 Three Media Plans, Compared MarketingStarterScenarios Does a small cohort need fewer replies? 123 replies for ±5 points on a cohort of 180 How Many Responses for a Course Survey? SchoolStarterSample Size (General) How few units tell you the batch average? 67 units for ±0.5 g · batch size adds one How Many Units Do We Have to Check? OperationsStarterSample Size (General) Which of your stores should share a target? Three kinds of store: 6, 9 and 9 of the 24 Which Stores Behave the Same Way? OperationsIntermediateClustering How do you know a forecast method actually works? Seed 2026 replays the 104 draws · mean 41.94 Make a Demand Series to Test a Model AnalyticsIntermediateRandom Number Generation Is one estimator quietly pricing higher than the other? Ravi prices $123/m2 over Sian · p 0.0000017 Do Our Two Estimators Price the Same Job the Same Way? ConstructionIntermediateStatistics Is unit cost driven by the price or by the volume? Over budget in 68% of years · volume is the driver Will Unit Cost Land Where the Budget Says? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How often does the cohort miss its budget? Short of the $180K budget in 42% of years What If the Cohort Does Not Fill? SchoolIntermediateMonte CarloPRO What gross multiple does the hurdle actually demand? The 8% hurdle demands 2.7x gross · 41% of funds clear Will the Fund Clear Its Hurdle? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO The business case says yes. What are the odds? NPV $77,823 on paper · 46% odds it never pays Is the New Machine Worth It? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How far short could the season finish? The $2.3M plan is missed in 62% of seasons Will the Season Hit Its Number? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Which date can you defend when the client pushes? Commit to 50 days, not 41 · P80 of 20,000 runs Can I Promise That Date to the Client? WorkIntermediateSchedule RiskPRO Which of your peak-season fixes actually pay? $246K exposure · the two loudest fixes lose $15K What Could Go Wrong at Peak? OperationsIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO Tool up or keep paying the supplier? Make wins by $48,750 · flips below 51.5% first-time qual Make It or Buy It? OperationsIntermediateDecision TreePRO What does your target return cost you in risk? 6.5% costs 8.01% volatility · the cap costs 0.67 pts The Cheapest Way to Hit the Target Return FinanceIntermediateOptimization Which client should you turn down? $54,292 a month · $7,192 over the instinct book Which Retainers Fit the Team We Have? MarketingStarterOptimization What Is This Comp Package Really Worth? Median $1.96M through exit · $460K per year WorkIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Would three extra days move your critical path? Day 30 · QA is a 3-day slip from taking the path over What Sets the Go-Live Date? MarketingStarterCritical PathPRO How many retainers can you afford to lose? 26.8% of years lose money · 22.5% lose two clients What If Two Clients Leave at Once? MarketingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Two tasks both have slack. Can you spend it twice? Day 52 · 6 of 8 tasks critical · one shared 16-day slack When Will the Course Be Ready? SchoolStarterCritical PathPRO Is the round your driver does now the shortest? 52.9 miles against the driver's 60.5 Which Order of Stops Makes the Shortest Delivery Round? OperationsIntermediateOptimization How much does it cost to pull the event now? Loss $110,840 if pulled · $7,583 the budget provision What If It Has to Be Cancelled? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Which fund risks are worth paying to cover? $280K of mitigation cuts $1.84M exposure by $656K What Could Go Wrong in the Fund? FinanceIntermediateRisk RegisterPRO What will a tonne of steel cost you next month? Next month $1,501 · the long-memory setting says $1,422 Where Is This Material Price Going? ConstructionStarterForecasting Will the new store pay for its fit-out? Median NPV $176K · 17% of leases never pay back Is the New Store Worth Opening? OperationsIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How many stores does your pilot really need? The arithmetic says 2.1 stores per arm · run 8 How Big Does the Pilot Have to Be? OperationsIntermediateA/B Test Sample Size Simulate five portfolio positions, each with a chance of not surviving the year and a value tied to the same funding market, to see the downside range. Free. Down 20%+ in 24.2% of years · P5 a 47.4% fall What Does a Bad Year Look Like? FinanceAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Should you drop the slow line? Drop wins by $27,000, with a 15% chance of $74K Should We Drop This Line? OperationsIntermediateDecision TreePRO Does your roadmap leave revenue on the floor? $700,000 against the meeting plan's $550,000 Which Features Fit the Quarter? SaaSStarterOptimization Is a random draw a fair way to split the weekends? Fair odds still deal 4 shifts to one name and none to two others Assign the Shifts Without Arguing OperationsStarterRandom Number Generation How much of the opening date is just waiting? Opens day 91, and 27 of those days are waiting What Sets the Opening Date? OperationsStarterCritical PathPRO What is the engagement worth once scope grows? $118,520 to take it · 69% of the edge is the phase gate Take the Engagement or Pass? WorkIntermediateDecision TreePRO Is that margin gap real or just a wider spread? 3.3-point gap, p 0.45 · one line is just wider Do Our Two Service Lines Earn the Same Margin? FinanceIntermediateStatistics Will the Roster Hold Tonight? NursingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Is the Roster Fair? NursingStarterStatistics Is the Extra Shift Worth It? NursingStarterData Table Overtime or Agency? NursingStarterData Table Two nurses on call cost $624 on a normal night. How Many Nurses on Call? NursingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO How Many Nurses Do We Need to Hire? NursingIntermediateMonte CarloPRO Should you make more of your most profitable product? What Should We Make This Week? OperationsStarterOptimization How few people can cover a seven-day week? How Few People Can Staff the Week? OperationsStarterOptimization Two experts, one schedule. Where is the settlement zone? Delay Claim: Who Owns the Days? LegalAdvancedMonte CarloPRO Which day can you promise and still be right nine times in ten? What deadline gives 90% odds of finishing? WorkStarterMonte CarloPRO How much cash does a year need before it is safe, not just funded? How much cash gives 95% odds of not running out? FinanceStarterMonte CarloPRO Is your price a plan, or a coin toss against the margin target? What price keeps 80% odds of hitting the margin target? FinanceStarterMonte CarloPRO How many units does one delivery wait really need on the shelf? How many units to stock for 90% odds of no stockout? OperationsStarterMonte CarloPRO Which bid is low enough to win and high enough to pay for the job? What bid wins with 70% odds and still makes money? WorkStarterMonte CarloPRO Which launch day is a coin toss against the rival, and which is worse? What launch date has even odds of beating the competitor? MarketingStarterMonte CarloPRO How many hires does a support week really need, in odds rather than averages? How many hires keep 85% odds of hitting the support target? OperationsStarterMonte CarloPRO Is a second shift enough for the peak week, or does it take a second line? What capacity gives 95% odds of covering peak demand? OperationsStarterMonte CarloPRO Which budget hits the lead target eight months in ten, and what do the extra points cost? What spend gives 80% odds of hitting the lead target? MarketingStarterMonte CarloPRO How much contingency does the job need before the budget holds nine times in ten? What contingency gives 90% odds of staying under budget? ConstructionStarterMonte CarloPRO How many tickets does the event need before break-even is more than a coin toss? How many tickets to sell for 90% odds of breaking even? MarketingStarterMonte CarloPRO What does the monthly transfer have to be for the goal to hold nine times in ten? What monthly saving gives 90% odds of hitting the goal on time? FinanceStarterMonte CarloPRO What are the odds this project clears a positive NPV? FinanceIntermediateMonte CarloPRO