How many people will the peak month need?
Support volume has a level, a trend and a season, and staffing needs all three separated. Holt-Winters does the separation and hands back a six-month forecast with confidence bands.
Operations Intermediate Forecasting free
After you install, this is the model to open.
Staff for the Season, Not the Average
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
The answer
The next quarters, from the fit:
- Coming months
- 1168, 1041, 1360, 1930 tickets (quarterly view)
- Winter peak, upper band
- 2072 tickets
Divide forecast tickets by tickets-per-agent and the roster writes itself, month by month, with the upper band telling you what to staff for if covered beats average. Paste your own months (two full seasons minimum) and set the horizon to your hiring lead time.
The model
Twenty-four months of tickets: a quiet spring, a build through autumn, a December peak half again the summer trough, riding 12% annual growth. Season length 12, horizon 6.
| History | 24 months of tickets |
| Season length | 12 months |
| Forecast + bands | calculated, 6 months |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- How far above average demand should you order?How Many Should I Order?
- What does staffing to an average day cost you?How Many People Should Be on Shift?
- How many extra seats before someone gets bumped?What Is the Best Number to Oversell?
- Everyone fits. Did anyone actually get what they wanted?Seat Everyone Without Breaking the Rules
- What is the cheapest menu that still keeps every promise?Feed Everyone for the Least Money
- Which venue is actually cheapest per head?Rank the Venues on What They Cost You
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Forecasting in Google Sheets.