When the company sells, what do you take home?
A nine-figure acquisition sounds life changing right up until you divide it by 128 million fully diluted shares. This model turns any exit price into three answers at once: the cash that lands in your account, the multiple each priced round makes on it, and what that multiple is actually worth once you weight it by the odds the company never gets to an exit at all.
Finance Intermediate Data Table free
After you install, this is the model to open.
Exit Payout Reality Check
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
The answer
One click runs a data table across seven exit prices, from a fire sale to a home run, and reports your cash next to the investor's headline and expected returns at every one.
- Your take-home at a $405M exit
- $23.7M on 5.86% fully diluted
- Series C headline annual return
- 21.8% 2.68x over 5 years
- Series C return after failure odds
- 15.0% weighted by 75% survival
- Exit where Series C breaks even
- $201M needs 1.33x just to clear zero
A 5.86% founder stake in a company that sells for $405M is worth $23.7M before tax. The fund that bought in at Series C for $1.18 a share turns the same sale into a 2.68x and a 21.8% headline annual return, but only 15.0% once you weight it by the 75% odds the company survives to an exit. Slide the price down to $200M and the fund's expected return is roughly zero while you still walk away with $11.7M, which is why the two of you can look at the same term sheet and want completely different outcomes.
The model
One cap table, two priced rounds, and a survival probability for each. Everything else is arithmetic on a single exit share price.
| Exit value | $405,000,000 |
| Fully diluted shares at exit | 128,000,000 |
| Your fully diluted shares | 7,500,000 (5.86%) |
| Series C entry price per share | $1.18, held 5 years |
| Series C survival probability | 75% |
| Series B entry price per share | $0.624, held 7 years |
| Series B survival probability | 60% |
| Exit prices tested | $60M – $405M – $900M |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- How much gross profit does each inventory dollar earn?What Does Each Dollar of Stock Earn in a Year?
- Where does a 35% hurdle rate actually come from?What Return Should a Risky Project Have to Clear?
- Which assumption is this strategic bet actually resting on?What Has to Be True: Strategic Bet Stress Test
- The headline says $12M. What is the earn-out worth?What Is the Earn-Out Actually Worth?
- Will the synergies actually cover the premium?Will the Synergies Cover the Premium?
- Can you afford the hiring plan?Can We Afford This Hiring Plan?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: What-if analysis in Google Sheets.