Should you take the settlement or go to trial?
A settlement check is certain. A verdict is a probability cloud that runs from a $1.5M net win to paying the other side's fees. This tree puts both on the same scale, so you can see exactly how much expected value you are buying, and how much risk you are taking on, before you sign.
Legal Advanced Decision Tree Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Settle or Go to Trial?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Rolling the tree back at the default assumptions produces a genuinely close call:
- Trial expected value
- $422 k
- Certain settlement, net
- $410 k
- Chance of a negative trial outcome
- 40 %
- Break-even win probability
- 59 %
At the defaults, trial carries an expected value of $422k, only $12k above the certain $410k settlement. That thin edge buys a 40% chance of ending up out of pocket, including a 10% chance of paying $550k under the fee-shift clause. If your honest win probability sits below 59%, the settlement is the better expected outcome.
The model
Every leaf holds the client's net recovery in thousands of dollars, after contingency fees and case costs on that path.
| Settlement offer (gross) | $675k |
| Settlement net of 1/3 fee and $40k costs | $410k |
| Chance of winning at trial | 60% |
| High verdict, $2.75M gross (30% of wins) | net $1,500k |
| Moderate verdict, $1.25M gross (70% of wins) | net $600k |
| Lose, each side bears own fees (75% of losses) | net -$150k |
| Lose with fee shifting (25% of losses) | net -$550k |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- How much should we reserve for this lawsuit?What Could the Lawsuit Cost Us?
- What range can a lost profits opinion actually support?How Much Are the Lost Profits Worth?
- Whose cost to complete should you believe?Is the Cost to Complete Claim Credible?
- Did that delay actually push the finish date?
- Will your reserve cover a bad claims year?How Big Could the Claims Year Be?
- Who is actually carrying the month?Which Lawyer Takes Which Matter?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Decision trees.