Is the franchise worth giving up a steady salary?
The job is a certain 165. The franchise and the independent route are lotteries with fees in front of them. The tree rolls all three back, and then shows you what the ranking is made of.
Personal Finance Starter Decision Tree Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Franchise, Independent, or Keep the Job?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
The rollback:
- Franchise EV
- 219
- Independent EV
- 198
- Job
- 165 certain
The franchise wins on expected value while carrying the worst floor in the tree: a weak location returns 90 against 180 invested. If that floor is unlivable, the EV ranking is not your ranking, and seeing exactly why is what the tree is for.
The model
Keep the job (165 certain, in thousands after tax over three years); buy the franchise (fee 180, location decides: 540/330/90 at 50/35/15); go independent (setup 60, takes off 30% for 500, gets by 40% for 240, folds 30% for 40).
| Keep the job | 165 certain |
| Franchise | fee 180, location lottery |
| Independent | setup 60, three outcomes |
| Expected values | rolled back |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- What will your savings be worth in 20 years?What Will the Savings Grow To, as a Range?
- Does buying ever win at big-city prices?Rent or Buy in an Expensive City
- Not whether a savings goal is hit: what one income-loss episode actually costs. This household can reach $11,000, which carries 65 in 100 episodes, and the 90 in 100 they asked for takes about $38,400.How Big Should the Emergency Fund Be?
- Pay a little extra each month. How much sooner is it gone?How Much Sooner Does an Extra Payment End the Loan?
- Will you actually hit your savings goal?Will You Hit Your Savings Goal?
- Will your retirement money last to 95?Retirement: Will the Money Last?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Decision trees.