What is a pilot actually worth before you commit?
Committing the full budget up front and piloting first are different bets even when the project is the same. Two decisions in sequence is what makes this a tree, and the rollback prices the difference.
Work Intermediate Decision Tree Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Pilot First, or Go Big?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
The rollback:
- EV with the gate
- 287
- Policy
- pilot, then scale on success
Full commitment with no gate does worse, because 45% of the time the pilot would have saved you the 500. Staging converts one big bet into a small bet plus an option, and the rollback is the option price. Any phased investment fits this exact shape.
The model
A $150K pilot fails outright 45% of the time. On success, a real second decision: sell the IP for a safe 120, or spend 500 to scale into a market that is big (35%, 2,600), modest (40%, 900) or a flop (25%, 100). Thousands throughout.
| Pilot | cost 150, fails 45% |
| On success | sell IP for 120, or scale for 500 |
| Market | big / modest / flop |
| Rolled-back EV | calculated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- What does each of the three budgets actually produce?Which of Three Budgets Should the Practice Plan On?
- Is the biggest engagement worth the two it blocks?Which Engagements Should We Take?
- Is filling every billable hour the wrong plan?Where Should My Own Week Go?
- Is 32 hours a week a target or a wish?What Does a Typical Billable Week Look Like?
- Is your biggest client really your best one?Which Clients Are Actually Worth Keeping?
- What is the lowest rate that is not a subsidy?What Rate Do I Have to Charge?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Decision trees.