What should you bid to win the job and still make money?
Every fixed-price bid is the same gamble: price low and win thin, or price high and watch the job go to someone else. This template simulates your rivals' bids thousands of times and shows the expected profit of any price you type, so you find the sweet spot instead of trusting a gut-feel markup.
Work Advanced Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Competitive Bid Optimizer
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
One click runs 10,000 head-to-head auctions against your rivals. At the default $32,000 bid:
- Expected profit at a $32,000 bid
- $4,270 per job, after the $1,000 prep cost
- Chance you beat every rival
- 75% at $32,000, against up to 4 bidders
- Lowball at $29,000
- $2,930 expected profit, even with a 98% win rate
- Pad it to $36,000
- $2,160 expected profit; the win rate falls to 29%
At a $32,000 bid you win about 75% of the time and clear roughly $4,270 in expected profit per job, the best of any price in $1,000 steps. Lowballing at $29,000 wins 98% of jobs but expects only about $2,930, and padding to $36,000 drops expected profit to about $2,160 despite the fatter margin. The sweet spot is real, and it usually sits lower than a comfortable markup feels.
The model
You set your bid and your costs. Four potential rivals each submit a bid 60% of the time, at an uncertain price of their own, and you win only when your price beats them all.
| My bid price | $32,000 (you choose) |
| My cost to deliver the job | $25,000 |
| Cost to prepare the bid | $1,000 |
| Potential rival bidders | 4 |
| Chance each rival submits a bid | 60% |
| Each rival's bid price | $28K – $35K – $48K (uncertain) |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- What will this project actually cost at completion?Project Health Check (EVM)
- Fund the safe project or the risky one?
- Which offer package should you actually ask for?Job Offer Package Optimizer
- Big advance or double the royalty rate?Advance vs Royalty
- Ship at 80% confidence, or run one more validation round?Ship Now or Test More
- When does your rollout actually reach 80% adoption?How Long Until the Team Works the New Way?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.