Will your walk-away price leave any deal zone at all?
You set your own walk-away number with confidence. Theirs is the number you never get to see. This template turns your best guess about their floor into a probability that any deal zone exists, plus the price you should expect to pay when one does.
Work Intermediate Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Deal Zone Odds (ZOPA Simulator)
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Ten thousand trials, one question answered before you make the first offer: is there a deal here, and what does it cost?
- Chance a deal zone exists
- 69% their floor lands under your ceiling
- Expected price when it closes
- $389,957 average across deal trials
- Chance you close above your target
- 52% of all trials
- Chance you walk away
- 31% no overlap at any price
At these defaults a deal zone exists in about 69% of trials, and when it does the price lands near $389,957, which is above the $385,000 target. Only 17% of trials close at or under target and 31% end with no overlap at any price. The $4,400 you burn while negotiating is not free either: it pulls your real ceiling down to $400,600 and costs you about 6.5 points of deal probability. Your $356,000 opening clears their floor in only 5% of trials, which makes it an anchor, not an expectation.
The model
The defaults describe a buyer for a small property who will not go past $405,000, wants to land at $385,000, and plans to open at $356,000.
| Your walk-away price | $405,000 |
| Your target price | $385,000 |
| Your opening offer price | $356,000 |
| Delay and carrying cost while you negotiate | $4,400 |
| Effective ceiling after delay cost | $400,600 |
| Their walk-away price | $340K – $390K – $440K (uncertain) |
| Your share of the deal zone | 50% (meet in the middle) |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- What finish date can you actually commit to?What Finish Date Can I Commit To?
- How much buffer does this plan actually need?How Much Buffer Does This Plan Need?
- Should you certify this payment application?Should I Certify This Payment Application?
- Is the startup equity worth the pay cut?
- Two reps closed the same number. Who ranks first?Rank the Leaderboard, Ties and All
- Is there a typo dragging your average up?Catch the Outlier Entry
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.