Will a weekend like this cover its costs?
The stall costs $1,900 whatever the sky does. Draw attendance straight from the weather forecast odds and spend from experience, and the gut call becomes an expected profit with a loss probability attached.
Life Starter Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Should You Book the Stall?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Twenty thousand simulated weekends:
- Profit, mean
- $620
- Profit, P5
- -$1,280
- Loses money
- 23% of weekends
About $620 of expected profit, bought with a one-in-four chance of a losing weekend: whether that is a good bet is your call, but now it is an informed one. The same five rows price a food-truck slot, a conference booth or a pop-up.
The model
Attendance as a discrete weather lottery (60% sunny brings 400 people, 30% cloudy 250, 10% rain 80), spend per visitor PERT $7-$11-$16, revenue share 70%, fixed costs $1,900.
| Attendance | discrete by weather: 400/250/80 |
| Spend per visitor | PERT $7-$11-$16 |
| Fixed costs | $1,900 |
| Profit and loss flag | simulated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- You added up the likely costs. Is that enough?Will the Trip Blow the Budget?
- Should you counter the offer, or just take it?Job Offer: Counter or Accept?
- Which apartment should you take?Which Apartment? Score It
- Will the wedding go over budget?Will the Event Go Over Budget?
- Will we actually be ready when the guests arrive?Finish Before the Party?
- How many more visits with your parents are left?How Many Visits With Your Parents Are Left?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.