What would regret have to be worth to leap?
The safe job pays a known amount. The leap pays an unknown amount, and the honest version of that comparison has a third number in it: what it costs you to spend the next decade knowing you never tried. This tree puts a dollar figure on that regret of omission and shows you exactly how large it has to be before the math tips.
Words on this sheet
- Expected value: The average payoff you would get if you faced this same choice many times, with each outcome weighted by its chance.
Work Intermediate Decision Tree Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Should You Take the Career Leap?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Rolled back at the defaults, the leap wins by a margin thin enough to be uncomfortable, and the template hands you the price that caused it.
- Leap, expected value
- $620,000 10-year NPV
- Stay, after regret
- $600,000 $700k less $100k regret
- Break-even regret price
- $80,000 where leap overtakes stay
- Chance the leap beats staying
- 30% only the breakout branch
At a regret price of zero the safe job wins outright, because the leap is worth $620,000 against a certain $700,000. You are effectively paying $80,000 of expected money for the chance to try, and that is the break-even number: price your regret above it and the rollback flips to Leap. The defaults price it at $100,000, so Leap wins by just $20,000, and the risk profile is the part worth staring at, since 70% of leap outcomes still finish below staying.
The model
One decision node, one chance node, and four numbers you can actually estimate. Every payoff is a 10-year after-tax present value discounted at 6%, so the two branches are directly comparable.
| Stay path, 10-year after-tax NPV | $700,000 (certain) |
| Regret of omission price | $100,000 (your number to set) |
| Leap, breakout | 30% chance, $950,000 |
| Leap, modest income but high meaning | 45% chance, $520,000 |
| Leap, fails and you return within 3 years | 25% chance, $404,000 after a $60,000 transition cost |
| Rollback goal | Maximize expected value |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
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- How much buffer does this plan actually need?How Much Buffer Does This Plan Need?
- Should you certify this payment application?Should I Certify This Payment Application?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Decision trees.