Which deductible really costs you less?
A premium comparison hides the real question: what happens in a bad year? This template runs both plans through the same 10,000 simulated years of medical bills, so you see the average cost and the worst case before open enrollment locks you in.
Personal Finance Intermediate Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Which Health Plan Costs Less Over a Year?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
One click on Run simulates 10,000 plan years. The two answer cells show total annual cost under each plan: premiums plus out-of-pocket spending, minus the HSA money for Plan B.
- HDHP wins
- 65% of simulated years
- Average HDHP saving
- $885 per year vs the low-deductible plan
- Worst-year penalty
- $5,560 extra HDHP cost in a major-event year
- Break-even
- $5,450 in medical bills, where both plans cost the same
The high-deductible plan is cheaper in about 65% of simulated years and saves roughly $885 per year on average. But when a major medical event hits, it costs $15,520 against the PPO's worst case of $9,960, a swing of $5,560. If your emergency fund can absorb one bad year, the HDHP wins over time; if it can't, the low-deductible plan is the price of sleeping well.
The model
Both plans face the identical uncertain year of medical bills, drawn from five weighted household scenarios ranging from a healthy year to a major medical event.
| Plan A (low deductible) | $580/mo premium, $500 deductible, $3,000 OOP max |
| Plan B (HDHP) | $360/mo premium, $4,000 deductible, $12,000 OOP max |
| Coinsurance after deductible | 10% Plan A, 30% Plan B |
| Employer HSA contribution | $800 (Plan B only) |
| Household medical bills | $500 to $80,000 (five weighted scenarios, uncertain) |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
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Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.