How good is each team, really?
Standings tell you who won. They don't tell you who is good. This template turns nothing but final scores into a power rating for every team, a measured home edge, and a predicted point spread for any matchup you care about.
Analytics Advanced Optimization free
After you install, this is the model to open.
Power Ratings & Spread Predictor
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
The answer
One click fits all nine numbers simultaneously. Here is what the scores alone reveal about this league:
- Home edge
- +3.4 points, fitted from results
- Top rating
- Aces +7.8 points above an average team
- Falcons host Aces
- Aces by 0.5 road favorite, near coin flip
- Typical miss
- 5.3 points per game (RMSE)
The optimizer prices home court at 3.4 points and rates the Aces best at +7.8, with the Hornets last at -6.0. When second-place Falcons host them, the model calls it Aces by 0.5, a road favorite in a near coin flip. Ratings also see through records: the 4-3 Dynamos grade out 6th of 8 because their four wins were narrow and one blowout loss left them 14 points underwater for the season.
The model
Eight teams, 28 final scores, nine unknowns: one rating per team plus a home edge. The optimizer picks the numbers that best explain every result at once.
| League | 8 teams, single round robin (28 games) |
| Inputs | Final scores as points the home team won by |
| Cells Sortia may change | 8 team ratings plus 1 home edge |
| Constraint | Ratings must average 0 (0 = average team) |
| Prediction rule | home rating minus away rating plus home edge |
| Objective | Minimize squared prediction error over all 28 games |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
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- What is your average hiding?One Table That Describes Your Numbers
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Optimization in Google Sheets.