What will your ARR be in 12 months?
A single forecast line is a guess dressed up as a fact. New bookings, churn, and expansion all vary month to month. This template turns your forecast into a confidence cone and your odds of clearing target.
SaaS Intermediate Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
SaaS ARR Forecast with Uncertainty
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Month-12 ARR across thousands of scenarios (starting from $1.0M):
- P5
- $1.5M
- Median
- $1.9M
- P95
- $2.3M
- Mean
- $1.9M
Even a "healthy" plan lands anywhere from $1.5M to $2.3M. If your board target is $2.2M, this shows you are in the top ~10% of outcomes, a stretch rather than a base case. That is a very different conversation than a single confident line.
The model
A monthly ARR bridge: new bookings add, churn subtracts, expansion lifts the base, compounded across 12 months. All three rates are uncertain.
| Starting ARR | $1,000,000 |
| New ARR / month | $40K – $80K – $140K (uncertain) |
| Monthly churn | 1% – 2% – 4% (uncertain) |
| Monthly expansion | 0% – 1% – 3% (uncertain) |
| ARR at month 12 | simulated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
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- Should you sell the hardware below cost to win the platform?Platform Launch Pricing
- If you raise prices, do you come out ahead?If We Raise Prices, Do We Come Out Ahead?
- How long until a customer pays you back?How Long Until a Customer Pays Us Back?
- What gross margin can you actually promise?What Gross Margin Can We Actually Promise?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.