Which event risks are worth paying to prevent?
A risk list becomes useful the moment every line carries a probability and an impact. Then you can ask the question that actually spends money well: does this mitigation remove more expected cost than it costs to buy?
Words on this sheet
- Venue: The place an event is held. A venue line is what hiring it costs, usually a fixed amount whatever the turnout.
Marketing Intermediate Risk Register Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Event Risk Register
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Exposure, and what mitigating buys:
- Total exposure
- $51K expected
- After mitigations
- $25.5K
- Best buy
- +$2.8K venue contract
- Worst
- −$1K weather plan
Expected exposure is $51,000, led by low ticket sales at $31,500, and the mitigations cut it to $25,500. The net-value column decides the budget: a written venue contract clears $2,800 for almost nothing, while the weather contingency spends $4,000 to remove $3,000 and loses money. Note the venue risk is only 5% likely but carries a $120,000 impact, which is why you read the impact column and not just the ranking.
The model
Four risks, each with a chance, an impact, and a priced mitigation.
| Keynote speaker cancels | 15% × $40,000 |
| Low ticket sales | 35% × $90,000 |
| Venue double-books | 5% × $120,000 |
| Bad weather hits travel | 25% × $30,000 |
| Mitigations | priced against exposure |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
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Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Schedule risk analysis.