Should you counter the offer, or just take it?
Countering feels risky, but "risky" is a feeling, not a number. Lay out the odds (they agree, they hold firm, or rarely it sours) and Sortia rolls the tree back to the expected value of each choice, so you negotiate with the math in front of you.
Life Intermediate Decision Tree Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Job Offer: Counter or Accept?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Rolling the tree back to expected value:
- Accept
- $120k
- Counter (EV)
- $126k
- Best move
- Counter
- Downside
- 10% $105k
Expected value says counter: it is worth about +$6k on average over just accepting. The tree also shows the honest downside: a 10% chance the offer slips to a $105k backup. Now it is a clear-eyed choice, not a gut-check. Put your own two salaries in the Value column and the whole report follows them, because nothing in the labels is holding an old figure.
The model
A decision tree, in thousands of dollars. Accept the $120k offer as it stands, or counter for $135k, where they might agree, hold at the original, or let the offer sour to a weaker backup. The figures live in the Value column and nowhere else, so the labels stay true whatever you type.
| Accept the offer | $120k (certain) |
| Counter, they agree | 50% chance of $135k |
| Counter, they hold firm | 40% chance of $120k |
| Counter, offer sours | 10% chance of $105k backup |
| Best choice | solved |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- Which apartment should you take?Which Apartment? Score It
- Will the wedding go over budget?Will the Event Go Over Budget?
- Will we actually be ready when the guests arrive?Finish Before the Party?
- How many more visits with your parents are left?How Many Visits With Your Parents Are Left?
- How should you actually spend your 168 hours a week?Design Your 168-Hour Week
- Will a weekend like this cover its costs?Should You Book the Stall?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Decision trees.