After this round, what do you actually walk away with?
The cap table is deterministic; the exit is not. This template runs the exit value as a range through a 1× liquidation waterfall, so you see the distribution of your real take-home, not a single optimistic headline.
Finance Advanced Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
What Do the Founders Keep After the Round and the Exit?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Founder take-home across the exit range:
- P5
- $23.6M
- Median
- $64.5M
- P95
- $129.8M
- Mean
- $69M
Your payout spans $23.6M to $129.8M depending almost entirely on where the exit lands. Seeing the full distribution, instead of a single "if we exit at $50M" line, is what lets you weigh this round against the odds honestly.
The model
A simple 1× non-participating preferred waterfall. At a small exit the investor takes its preference; at a big exit it converts to its ownership share. Exit value is the uncertainty.
| Founder shares | 8,000,000 |
| Investor shares (round) | 2,000,000 |
| Founder ownership | 80% |
| Investment (1× pref) | $2,000,000 |
| Exit value | $10M – $50M – $200M (uncertain) |
| Founder payout | simulated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- Does the launch still pay after it eats the flagship?Launch With Cannibalization
- What are the odds your product launch actually makes money?Product Launch Go/No-Go NPV
- How big could this product's revenue be by year three?Market Size to Revenue Forecast
- Which projects should we fund this year?Project Portfolio Selector
- How many rentals until an item pays for itself?Rental Break-Even Turns
- What pre-money valuation can your startup actually justify?What Is the Startup Worth to an Investor?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.