What are the odds you land an A?
Homework and the midterm are locked in; the final is the unknown. This template runs the final as a range through your weighted grade, so you see the spread of grades you might land, and exactly what you need on the final to reach the next letter.
Words on this sheet
- Weighting: How much this item counts against the others.
School Starter Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
What Grade Will You Get?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Course grade across the range of possible finals:
- Most likely
- 87
- Range P5–P95
- 83–91
- Locked-in B
- 100%
- Shot at an A
- 11%
You are a lock for a B: every scenario clears 80. An A (90+) needs about a 91 on the final, which happens in roughly 1 in 9 of your likely outcomes. Instead of anxiously guessing, you now know the exact target to aim for. Swap in your own scores and weights. A teacher can run a whole roster the same way.
The model
Your course grade is a weighted average of homework, midterm, and the final. The final score is the uncertain input.
| Homework average | 90 |
| Midterm score | 88 |
| Final exam score | 68 – 85 – 98 (uncertain) |
| Weights (HW / Mid / Final) | 30% / 30% / 40% |
| Course grade | simulated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- Exactly what do you need on the final?What Do You Need on the Final?
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- Three averages differ. Is that more than chance?Which Study Method Actually Works?
- Should you switch doors or stay?Switch or Stay? The Monty Hall Problem, Simulated
- Why does splitting the money cut the risk?Why Diversification Works
- Drill blind or pay to learn the odds first?Is the Test Worth Paying For?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.