Which subscribers are about to cancel?
Churn reports tell you how many customers left last quarter. This template looks the other way: it scores every current subscriber's odds of cancelling from three fields in any billing export, then does the offer math to tell you exactly who deserves a save call this week.
Analytics Advanced Logistic Regression free
After you install, this is the model to open.
Churn Early-Warning Scorecard
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
The answer
One click fits the logistic model and turns each subscriber into a churn score with a save-or-not call. Here is what the default data says:
- Highest churn score
- 96% brand-new month-to-month, single-product subscriber
- Worth a save offer
- 10 of 30 subscribers where the $60 offer is EV-positive
- Break-even risk
- 30% churn score that justifies the offer at an $80 bill
- Expected campaign gain
- $612 net of offer costs, across the 10 flagged subscribers
Month-to-month subscribers cancelled at 50% versus 12.5% on term contracts, and the model turns that pattern into a score for every customer, topping out at 96% for a brand-new single-product account. The offer math then narrows the list: a $60 save credit only pays when the churn score clears roughly 30% at a typical bill, which flags 10 of 30 subscribers worth an expected $612 net. That is the difference between a churn chart and a call list.
The model
Thirty subscribers from a regional internet and mobile provider, with the three fields that drive churn in almost every subscription business: contract type, tenure, and how many products they hold.
| Contract type | Month-to-month (1) or 1 to 2 year term (0) |
| Tenure | 0 to 9 years with the provider |
| Products held | 1 to 3 (internet, mobile, TV) |
| Monthly bill | $44 to $124 |
| Save offer | $60 credit, 35% save rate, 60% margin, 12-month horizon |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- How good is each team, really?Power Ratings & Spread Predictor
- How many survey responses do you actually need?Survey Sample Size Planner
- Version B is up 18%. Is that a real win or just noise?Did the A/B Test Actually Win?
- Why are most of your flags false alarms?Bayes Flip: P(A|B) vs P(B|A)
- Your dashboard says stores win. Does the data agree?Simpson's Paradox Detector
- How long will the next batch take?Learning Curve: How Long Will the Next Batch Take?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Machine learning in Google Sheets.