How big could this product's revenue be by year three?
Every pitch deck has a market-size slide, and most are top-down hand-waving. This template builds the number bottom-up from category units, applicability, price, and share ramp, then runs 10,000 futures so your revenue slide shows a range with probabilities instead of a hockey stick.
Finance Advanced Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Market Size to Revenue Forecast
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
One click reruns the cascade 10,000 times and turns the point forecast into a year-three revenue distribution.
- Addressable market, 2029
- $714M 272,098 applicable procedures at $2,623
- Year-three revenue, point estimate
- $92.8M 13% share of the addressable market
- Chance of clearing $75M in 2029
- 80% from the 10,000-trial simulation
- Year-three range, P10 to P90
- $66M – $131M median near $95M
The single-point forecast says $92.8M in year three. The simulation says the honest range is $66M to $131M with a median near $95M, an 80% chance of clearing $75M, and only about a 53% chance of beating the point estimate itself. That is the version of the revenue slide a diligent investor actually believes.
The model
The example is a medical device startup entering a 1.2 million procedure per year category. Six of the eight assumptions carry uncertainty ranges.
| Procedures performed this year | 1,200,000 |
| Annual market growth rate | 4% – 8% – 12% (uncertain) |
| Applicability rate | 12% – 18% – 25% (uncertain) |
| Device price today | $2,100 – $2,400 – $2,700 (uncertain) |
| Medical inflation rate | 3% per year |
| Market share, year 1 | 2% – 5% – 8% (uncertain) |
| Market share, year 2 | 5% – 9% – 14% (uncertain) |
| Market share, year 3 | 7% – 13% – 20% (uncertain) |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- Which projects should we fund this year?Project Portfolio Selector
- How many rentals until an item pays for itself?Rental Break-Even Turns
- What pre-money valuation can your startup actually justify?What Is the Startup Worth to an Investor?
- When the company sells, what do you take home?Exit Payout Reality Check
- How much gross profit does each inventory dollar earn?What Does Each Dollar of Stock Earn in a Year?
- Where does a 35% hurdle rate actually come from?What Return Should a Risky Project Have to Clear?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.