What is the business really worth?
A DCF is hostage to three guessed inputs. Change growth, margin, or WACC a little and the value swings a lot. This template runs all three as ranges and returns a valuation distribution, not one brittle number.
Finance Advanced Monte Carlo Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
What Is the Business Worth, as a Range?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
Enterprise value across thousands of scenarios:
- P5
- $1.7M
- Median
- $2.9M
- P95
- $4.7M
- Mean
- $3.0M
The valuation spans $1.7M to $4.7M, nearly 3×, from reasonable ranges on just three inputs. The tornado chart ranks which assumption moves the value most, so you know where to tighten your estimate instead of arguing about the headline number.
The model
A 5-year unlevered free-cash-flow projection with a Gordon-growth terminal value. Revenue growth, EBIT margin, and WACC are the uncertain inputs.
| Revenue (Year 1) | $1,000,000 |
| Revenue growth | 5% – 15% – 30% (uncertain) |
| EBIT margin | 10% – 20% – 28% (uncertain) |
| WACC | 8% – 10% – 14% (uncertain) |
| Terminal growth | 3% |
| Enterprise value | simulated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- After this round, what do you actually walk away with?What Do the Founders Keep After the Round and the Exit?
- Does the launch still pay after it eats the flagship?Launch With Cannibalization
- What are the odds your product launch actually makes money?Product Launch Go/No-Go NPV
- How big could this product's revenue be by year three?Market Size to Revenue Forecast
- Which projects should we fund this year?Project Portfolio Selector
- How many rentals until an item pays for itself?Rental Break-Even Turns
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Monte Carlo simulation.