When does the punch list actually finish?
Slow start, fast middle, long tail of stubborn items: every closeout follows the same shape. Fitting the S-curve to your weekly readings projects the real handover date, not the hopeful one.
Construction Starter S-Curve Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
Is Closeout on Track?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
The fit answers the question the straight line gets wrong:
- History fitted
- 7 weeks
- Shape
- S-curve not a line
- Projected completion
- on the report
Straight-line extrapolation from the fast middle weeks is how closeouts get promised three weeks early. The S-curve knows the tail is coming because your own history already shows it. Works identically for migrations, audits and test campaigns.
The model
Seven weekly percent-complete readings, 4% to 75%, fitted to a logistic curve and projected forward to completion.
| Weekly readings | 7 weeks, 4% to 75% |
| Curve fit + projection | calculated |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- What do the lean, normal and cautious bids each look like?Three Ways to Price This Bid
- Cheapest crew per site, or cheapest week?Which Crew Goes to Which Site?
- The rate says 90 a day. What do the site records say?What Does a Normal Crew Day Produce?
- Are you paying for cement the spec does not need?Which Concrete Mix Meets Spec for the Least Money?
- Crew B is 16% ahead. Is that the crew, or the fortnight?Do the Three Crews Work at the Same Rate?
- Should you chase this tender at all?How Should Two Bidders Price One Tender?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Schedule risk analysis.