How many extra seats before someone gets bumped?
Most tools optimize an average because it is the only statistic they have. When the downside is what you actually care about, you should be able to optimize that instead, and see what the difference costs.
Operations Advanced Optimization under Uncertainty Pro engine
After you install, this is the model to open.
What Is the Best Number to Oversell?
- In your spreadsheet, click the Sortia icon in the strip of icons down the right-hand edge. No strip? Click the arrow at the bottom-right to open it. You can also use Extensions, then Sortia, then Open Sortia.
- Click Start from a template and put that name in the search box.
- Pick the card with that name and click Load this template. It arrives on a new tab with real numbers already in it.
This one runs on a Pro engine, and every free install includes five full-quality runs on your own numbers, shared across all five Pro engines rather than five for each. After that, Pro is $199/year.
The answer
The same model, two different goals:
- Optimizing P5 (cautious)
- 103 tickets
- Optimizing the mean
- 105 tickets
- Chance of bumping someone
- 4% vs 21% cautious vs average
Both answers beat the 108 the dial version starts from, which sits past the peak at about $24,630 against $24,870 at 105. A number that looks carefully chosen can still be on the wrong side of the top. Which of 103 and 105 is right depends on what an apology at the gate costs you in reputation rather than dollars, and no model knows that; it can only put a price on each answer.
The model
The same flight as the overbooking dial: 100 seats, $240 a fare, $900 to compensate a denied boarding, and a show rate anywhere between 87% and 98%. The optimizer may sell between 100 and 130 tickets.
| Seats / fare / compensation | 100 / $240 / $900 |
| Show rate | Uniform(87%, 98%) |
| Tickets sold | optimized on P5, then on the mean |
Once it is in your sheet
- The model arrives with real numbers in it and runs as it stands, so you can press the button first and understand it second.
- Change the numbers to yours. The sheet marks which cells are inputs and which hold formulas, and most labels carry a note explaining the row.
- Press the run button at the bottom of the panel. It is labeled for the tool you are in, and the result lands on its own tab, with a written reading of it beside the figures.
Never used Google Sheets? Start here goes the whole way, in seven steps, and assumes nothing.
Next question
- Everyone fits. Did anyone actually get what they wanted?Seat Everyone Without Breaking the Rules
- What is the cheapest menu that still keeps every promise?Feed Everyone for the Least Money
- Which venue is actually cheapest per head?Rank the Venues on What They Cost You
- More invitations, or more notice?What Predicts Turnout?
- Packing the best thing first. What does that cost you?Fit the Most Into One Box
- Does the cheapest quote stay cheapest after freight?Which Suppliers Fill the Order Cheapest?
Every model like this one, and the method behind them: Optimization under uncertainty.